USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Miami FC vs Loudoun United FC
Likeliest: Miami FC win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Miami FC57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Loudoun United FC21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Miami FC
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · at FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (A)2-1
- Sep 30 · v SC Jacksonville (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Indy Eleven (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Rhode Island FC (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Brooklyn FC (A)1-1
Loudoun United FC
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Indy Eleven (H)1-1
- Sep 25 · at SC Jacksonville (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Louisville City FC (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)4-5
| Last 10 games | Miami FC | Loudoun United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.