Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 26 · 15:00 · Middlesbrough vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 38%
A 36% away win. The market says 20%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough38%54%−16
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers36%20%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 50% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 80% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 46% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 73% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 20 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
- Dec 9 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Dec 5 · at Hull City (A)4-1
- Nov 29 · v Derby County (H)2-1
Blackburn Rovers
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Dec 20 · v Millwall (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Portsmouth (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Dec 2 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Middlesbrough form·Blackburn Rovers form·Head-to-head record