Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 12:30 · Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 48%
A 26% away win. The market says 17%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough48%61%−13
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Bristol City26%17%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 83% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 39% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 78% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 11 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)4-0
- Mar 2 · at Birmingham City (A)3-1
- Feb 24 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
Bristol City
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 10 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · v Coventry City (H)0-2
- Feb 27 · v Watford (H)1-2
- Feb 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.