Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:30 · Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough66%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Cardiff City16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 13 · at Stoke City (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Millwall (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Norwich City (H)4-3
Cardiff City
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 13 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Oct 10 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.