Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 25 · 19:45 · Middlesbrough vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 33%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough37%33%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%28%−1
OursMarket
Coventry City35%39%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 46% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Nov 22 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Nov 4 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Watford (A)0-3
- Oct 25 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
Coventry City
WinLossWinWinWin
- Nov 22 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Nov 8 · at Stoke City (A)1-0
- Nov 4 · v Sheffield United (H)3-1
- Oct 31 · at Wrexham (A)2-3
- Oct 25 · v Watford (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.