Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 1 · 15:00 · Middlesbrough vs Derby County
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Middlesbrough40%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Derby County33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
LossLossLossLossWin
- Feb 25 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Feb 21 · at Bristol City (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · v Watford (H)0-1
- Feb 12 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
- Feb 3 · v Sunderland (H)2-3
Derby County
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Feb 22 · v Millwall (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-4
- Feb 11 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
- Feb 8 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.