Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 15:00 · Middlesbrough vs Derby County
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 44%
A 28% away win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough44%53%−9
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Derby County28%20%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 47% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 73% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Nov 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
- Nov 22 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Nov 4 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Watford (A)0-3
Derby County
WinWinWinLossWin
- Nov 25 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Watford (H)2-3
- Nov 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Nov 4 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.