Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Middlesbrough vs Hull City
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 40%
A 35% away win. The market says 20%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough40%56%−16
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Hull City35%20%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 80% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 74% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Dec 26 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
- Dec 9 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Dec 5 · at Hull City (A)4-1
Hull City
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Dec 26 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-2
- Dec 20 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Millwall (A)3-1
- Dec 10 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
- Dec 5 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.