Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 45%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough27%71%−44
OursMarket
Draw28%18%+10
OursMarket
Lincoln City45%10%+34
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 90% | −34 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 29% | +44 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 87% | −49 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 7 · v Wrexham (H)1-0
- May 23 · at Hull City (A)0-1
- May 12 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Southampton (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
Lincoln City
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 8 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- May 2 · at Port Vale (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)4-3
- Apr 21 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Stevenage (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.