Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 11:30 · Middlesbrough vs Millwall
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 46%
A 28% away win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough46%56%−10
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Millwall28%20%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 74% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Mar 21 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-0
- Mar 14 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)4-0
- Mar 2 · at Birmingham City (A)3-1
Millwall
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 21 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
- Mar 10 · v Derby County (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Hull City (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · at Preston North End (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.