Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:45 · Middlesbrough vs Millwall
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough61%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Millwall17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Norwich City (H)4-3
- Sep 8 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
Millwall
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Sep 2 · v Wrexham (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Southampton (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.