Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 · Middlesbrough vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 52%
A 25% away win. The market says 20%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough52%56%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Norwich City25%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 80% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 24 · v Preston North End (H)4-0
- Jan 21 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Jan 16 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)3-2
- Jan 10 · at Fulham (A)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Southampton (H)4-0
Norwich City
LossWinWinWinWin
- Jan 26 · v Coventry City (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)5-0
- Jan 17 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v Walsall (H)5-1
- Jan 4 · v Stoke City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.