Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Middlesbrough vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 51%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Norwich City25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 8 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-1
Norwich City
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 9 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Stoke City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Aug 25 · at Cardiff City (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.