Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 · Middlesbrough vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 53%
A 22% away win. The market says 9%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough53%35%+17
OursMarket
Draw26%56%−30
OursMarket
Oxford United22%9%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 91% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 65% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 44% | +30 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 81% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 16 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Feb 9 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · v Preston North End (H)4-0
- Jan 21 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
Oxford United
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 15 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v Norwich City (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at Coventry City (A)0-0
- Feb 3 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v Birmingham City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.