Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 14:00 · Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 64%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough64%61%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Portsmouth15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 53% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 51% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Apr 6 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Millwall (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-0
- Mar 14 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-1
Portsmouth
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-6
- Mar 16 · v Derby County (H)0-1
- Mar 10 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.