Championship (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Southampton32%30%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 1 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Dec 26 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
Southampton
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Jan 1 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- Dec 29 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Dec 26 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.