Championship (England) · Sat, May 9 · 11:30 · Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 40%
A 34% away win. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−2
OursMarket
Southampton34%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 46% | +22 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 59% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- May 2 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Portsmouth (H)0-1
Southampton
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- May 2 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Apr 28 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.