Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 11:30 · Middlesbrough vs Watford
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough63%68%−5
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
Watford16%13%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 61% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 54% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 87% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 32% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 84% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Apr 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Portsmouth (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Millwall (H)1-2
Watford
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.