Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 11:30 · Middlesbrough vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 53%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough53%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion22%21%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 52% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 73% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
LossWinWinLossWin
- Aug 25 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Lincoln City (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Wrexham (H)1-0
- May 23 · at Hull City (A)0-1
West Bromwich Albion
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 26 · at Newcastle United (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Rotherham United (A)4-1
- May 2 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Middlesbrough form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record