Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Wolverhampton33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Millwall (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Norwich City (H)4-3
- Sep 8 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-0
Wolverhampton
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Everton (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Sheffield United (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · at West Ham United (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.