EFL Cup (England) · Fri, Aug 7 · 19:00 · Middlesbrough vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 48%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Middlesbrough48%53%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Wrexham26%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 70% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Middlesbrough
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- May 23 · at Hull City (A)0-1
- May 12 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Southampton (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Watford (H)5-1
Wrexham
LossWinWinLossDraw
- May 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 26 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Birmingham City (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Middlesbrough | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.