Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 29 · 19:45 · Milan vs Lazio
Likeliest: Milan win · 46%
A 27% away win. The market says 17%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milan46%58%−12
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Lazio27%17%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 42% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 77% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milan
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Nov 23 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Parma (A)2-2
- Nov 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Oct 28 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
- Oct 24 · v Pisa (H)2-2
Lazio
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 23 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Nov 9 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Nov 3 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
- Oct 30 · at Pisa (A)0-0
- Oct 26 · v Juventus (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Milan | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.