Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 14 · 11:30 · Milan vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Milan win · 61%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milan61%65%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
Sassuolo19%13%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 51% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 87% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 35% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 84% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milan
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Dec 8 · at Torino (A)3-2
- Dec 4 · at Lazio (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Lazio (H)1-0
- Nov 23 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Parma (A)2-2
Sassuolo
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 6 · v Fiorentina (H)3-1
- Nov 28 · at Como (A)0-2
- Nov 24 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Atalanta (A)3-0
- Nov 3 · v Genoa (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Milan | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.