Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Milford FC vs Durban City FC
Likeliest: draw · 36%
We make it 46% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milford FC30%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Durban City FC34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milford FC
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v Richards Bay FC (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at Chippa United (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-2
- Aug 26 · at Polokwane City (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Kruger United (H)2-1
Durban City FC
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 17 · at Orlando Pirates (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Rukinzo FC (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Rukinzo FC (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Stellenbosch (H)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Kruger United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Milford FC | Durban City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.