Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:00 · Milford FC vs Richards Bay FC
Likeliest: draw · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the draw. The market says 33%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milford FC35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+2
OursMarket
Richards Bay FC30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 34% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 41% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milford FC
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Chippa United (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-2
- Aug 26 · at Polokwane City (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Kruger United (H)2-1
- Aug 12 · v Siwelele FC (H)1-0
Richards Bay FC
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 4 · v AmaZulu FC (H)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Kaizer Chiefs (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Durban City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · at Chippa United (A)1-1
- Aug 2 · v Polokwane City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Milford FC | Richards Bay FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-7-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.