Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:05 · Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba
Likeliest: Millonarios win · 81%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millonarios81%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
Jaguares de Córdoba6%8%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millonarios
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-2
- Sep 25 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)2-1
Jaguares de Córdoba
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Deportes Tolima (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)0-2
- Sep 27 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Independiente Medellín (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Millonarios | Jaguares de Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.