Primera A (Colombia) · Wed, Oct 21 · 01:30 · Millonarios vs Once Caldas
Likeliest: Millonarios win · 58%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millonarios58%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Once Caldas16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millonarios
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-2
- Sep 25 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)3-0
Once Caldas
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Llaneros FC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Millonarios | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.