Championship (England) · Wed, Feb 25 · 19:45 · Millwall vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 33%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Birmingham City40%33%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 53% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Feb 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Feb 14 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Wrexham (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
Birmingham City
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Feb 21 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Feb 15 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 10 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Oxford United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.