Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 · Millwall vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Millwall win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall62%52%+10
OursMarket
Draw20%27%−7
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers18%21%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 44% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 48% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 73% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 71% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossWinWinWinWin
- Mar 10 · v Derby County (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Hull City (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · at Preston North End (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Feb 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
Blackburn Rovers
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Derby County (A)1-3
- Feb 24 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.