Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Millwall win · 51%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers24%22%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 69% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 2 · v Wrexham (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Southampton (A)1-5
- Aug 25 · at Cambridge United (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Aug 15 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
Bolton Wanderers
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 1 · at Sheffield United (A)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.