Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Millwall vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 32%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall37%39%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−3
OursMarket
Bristol City38%32%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 55% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Dec 26 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Hull City (H)1-3
- Dec 10 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
Bristol City
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Dec 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Millwall (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.