Championship (England) · Tue, Mar 10 · 19:45 · Millwall vs Derby County
Likeliest: Millwall win · 56%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall56%48%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Derby County22%25%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 46% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 52% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 66% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinLossWinWinWin
- Mar 7 · at Hull City (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · at Preston North End (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Feb 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Feb 14 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
Derby County
WinLossLossWinWin
- Mar 7 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
- Feb 24 · at Hull City (A)2-4
- Feb 21 · at Watford (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.