Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Millwall vs Hull City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 47%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall59%47%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Hull City19%26%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 64% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Dec 10 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Southampton (H)3-2
- Nov 26 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Portsmouth (A)1-3
Hull City
LossLossWinLossWin
- Dec 10 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
- Dec 5 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-4
- Nov 29 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.