Championship (England) · Mon, May 11 · 19:00 · Millwall vs Hull City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 52%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall52%53%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Hull City22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 51% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 71% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- May 8 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- May 2 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 18 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-0
Hull City
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- May 8 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- May 2 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Leicester City (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.