Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:30 · Millwall vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Lincoln City24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Preston North End (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-3
Lincoln City
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · v West Ham United (H)0-6
- Oct 10 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.