EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 19:00 · Millwall vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Millwall win · 45%
A 27% draw. The market says 22%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall45%17%+28
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Newcastle United27%60%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 40% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 83% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 22% | +40 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Sep 2 · v Wrexham (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Southampton (A)1-5
- Aug 25 · at Cambridge United (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
Newcastle United
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- May 24 · at Fulham (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.