Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 12:00 · Millwall vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 44%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall50%44%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Norwich City25%29%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 56% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 60% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Apr 3 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
- Mar 10 · v Derby County (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Hull City (A)3-1
Norwich City
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 3 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
- Mar 18 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Preston North End (H)2-0
- Mar 11 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.