Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 11:30 · Millwall vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 54%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall54%43%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Norwich City22%30%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 49% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 57% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 59% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Aug 15 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Hull City (H)0-2
- May 8 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- May 2 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
Norwich City
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 15 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)4-1
- May 2 · at Hull City (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Swansea City (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Derby County (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.