Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Millwall vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Millwall win · 53%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall53%69%−16
OursMarket
Draw28%19%+8
OursMarket
Oxford United20%12%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 58% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 88% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 31% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 81% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 85% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 24 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 18 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-0
- Apr 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
Oxford United
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Apr 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-1
- Apr 21 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.