Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 · Millwall vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Millwall win · 48%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Portsmouth28%22%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 44% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 78% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 68% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 14 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Wrexham (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Jan 20 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
Portsmouth
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Feb 17 · at Charlton Athletic (A)3-1
- Feb 14 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at Preston North End (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-0
- Jan 25 · v Southampton (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.