Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 11:30 · Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Millwall win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 56%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall63%56%+7
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers17%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 44% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 74% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
Queens Park Rangers
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 11 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Watford (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Portsmouth (H)6-1
- Mar 14 · at Leicester City (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.