Championship (England) · Wed, Nov 26 · 19:45 · Millwall vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Millwall win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 56%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall64%56%+8
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday15%18%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 44% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 75% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Nov 22 · at Portsmouth (A)1-3
- Nov 8 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Nov 1 · at Oxford United (A)2-2
- Oct 25 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
Sheffield Wednesday
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Nov 23 · v Sheffield United (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Nov 5 · v Norwich City (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Oct 25 · v Oxford United (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.