Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 15:00 · Millwall vs Southampton
Likeliest: Millwall win · 72%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall72%31%+40
OursMarket
Draw17%28%−11
OursMarket
Southampton11%41%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 59% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 69% | −40 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 72% | +11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 43% | +43 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Nov 26 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Portsmouth (A)1-3
- Nov 8 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Nov 1 · at Oxford United (A)2-2
Southampton
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
- Nov 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Nov 1 · v Preston North End (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.