Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 15 · 12:30 · Millwall vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Millwall48%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Stoke City26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 12 · at Leeds United (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Watford (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Bristol City (H)0-2
- Mar 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Feb 22 · at Derby County (A)1-0
Stoke City
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 12 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-0
- Mar 8 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
- Mar 1 · v Watford (H)0-0
- Feb 25 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-3
- Feb 22 · at Norwich City (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.