Championship (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Millwall vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 45%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Swansea City28%25%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 41% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 65% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Jan 1 · at Southampton (A)0-0
- Dec 29 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Hull City (H)1-3
Swansea City
LossWinLossWinWin
- Jan 1 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 29 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 19 · v Wrexham (H)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.