Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:45 · Millwall vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Millwall win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Swansea City34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Preston North End (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
Swansea City
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Lincoln City (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.