Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:30 · Millwall vs West Ham United
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall20%23%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
West Ham United55%53%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Sep 2 · v Wrexham (H)0-3
West Ham United
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 15 · v Fulham (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Wrexham (H)6-0
- Sep 8 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Derby County (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · v Wolverhampton (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.