Championship (England) · Wed, Sep 2 · 18:45 · Millwall vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Millwall win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 44%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Millwall57%44%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Wrexham20%28%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 48% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 72% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 56% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 61% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Millwall
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at Southampton (A)1-5
- Aug 25 · at Cambridge United (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Aug 15 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-1
Wrexham
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Watford (H)1-1
- Aug 17 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Millwall | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.