League One (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 11:30 · Milton Keynes Dons vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Milton Keynes Dons win · 60%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milton Keynes Dons60%33%+26
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Leicester City18%40%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 60% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 67% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 45% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milton Keynes Dons
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Oxford United (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
- May 2 · at Fleetwood Town (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)3-0
Leicester City
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 25 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Burton Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Notts County (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Northampton Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Milton Keynes Dons | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.