League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:30 · Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Milton Keynes Dons30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Luton Town44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Milton Keynes Dons
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Reading (H)1-5
- Oct 6 · v Brentford U21 (H)7-1
- Sep 22 · v Crawley Town (H)4-1
- Sep 17 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Peterborough United (H)1-1
Luton Town
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · at Stevenage (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Milton Keynes Dons | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.